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Belarus Turns Into Bermuda Triangle

Belarus Turns Into Bermuda Triangle
SOURCE: CARTOON.KULICHKI.COM

The regime is desperately looking for money, but cannot find any.

On July 11 it became known that Lukashenka made a final decision about the transition of the Vorsha Aircraft Repair Plant to the state property. The enterprise, 60% of which belonged to the Ukrainian company "Motor Sich", was nationalized.

"There’s no proprietor here anymore. So act. This is the state-owned enterprise today", - the dictator said to his entourage when visiting the plant.

The context in which the expropriation of the factory took place is also important: the foreign reserves in the country sharply reduced due to the payment of interest on public debt, and the Eurasian Foundationfroze the issuance of the next tranche to Belarus.

What will such policy of the authorities lead to under these circumstances? Economist Leu Marholin and one of the leaders of the Belarusian National Congress, coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Yauhen Afnahel answered the questions of Charter97.org.

Two signals

By itself, the nationalization of enterprises in a state of law is neither good nor bad, said Leu Marholin:

- This means that the state applied the legal mechanism of protection of workers from the mass lay-offs. But this is not the case. The situation with the Vorsha factory should be considered in the context of the Belarusian system. Here, not the mechanism for the protection of workers has obviously been applied, but the seizure of the enterprise into the state property. And this time, from a very serious and big investor. Therefore, the consequences can be very serious.

The nationalization of the Vorsha plant gives two signals, Yauhen Afnahel said:

- The first signal goes to the Ukrainian Business and authorities: the official Minsk has always been and will always be Putin’ ally while Lukashenka is at power. And he can always be expected to backstab.

The second signal remains more important. It is not the first time Lukashenka takes away the best parts from the business. The dictator somehow cannot get it right with the finances: these authorities constantly need money. Therefore, the Belarusian businessmen, even within the environment of Lukashenka, have always been grown as bulls for slaughter. I want to say one simple thing: the Belarusian business should understand that it is much more profitable and safer not to have to wait when the regime throws them to jail for ransom, but to start supporting the opposition. Gentlemen, you have perspectives under these authorities.

„The delayed-action Knyrovich’’

Investors are interested in not just the laws of the country, but mostly the criminal cases and the sentences made against their colleagues, Leu Marholin is convinced:

- The "nationalization" of the Vorsha plant and the knyrovich case dealt a huge blow to the image of Belarus. These are two sides of the same coin - the de-privatization of enterprises and the criminal case against a businessman. Then you can do whatever you like, and sit at the sea waiting for the investor — nothing is going to help. The "delayed action Knyrovich" will be ticking from behind the economy, scaring off foreign investment.

Each jailing of a businessman makes the moment, when no one puts money into Lukashenka’s begging hand, closer, Yauhen Afnahel believes:

- Virtually every potential investor now knows that in Belarus they could easily go to jail. The country has turned into the Bermuda Triangle, where, figuratively speaking, galleons with gold and people were lost. Today only the most desperate and unscrupulous pirates dare to ‘’swim’’ here, but there are very few of them and soon there will be none. Lukashenka found himself in a pathetic situation.

It is evident that the regime is desperately looking for money and cannot find it anywhere. We are seeing a distinct signal that Lukashenka has not received the desired and, most likely, will not get it. The decision of the Eurasian Bank for cancellation the tranche amid falling gold reserves is a very telling indicator. In fact, even the Russians sent Lukashenka to the "Field of Dreams" with the last five golden coins — to bury them and say some magic words in the hope that it will help. And there, in the "country of fools", Nicolas maduro is already waiting for his buddy-dictator, with an annual inflation rate of 24,500%. The same will be here, given such attitude to business and investors.

The default is coming

The development of the Belarusian economy is impossible without investment, whatever Lukashenka might say, Leu Marholin adds:

- This is the third side of the same coin. Therefore, we see a significant reduction in gold and foreign exchange reserve. It has been said that these reserves should grow. But alas - Belarus’s airbag is exhausted. Loans that are involved do not bring the economy to a new level, but get eaten away. We approached the line beyond which taking new loans has become virtually impossible.

Even the Russians stopped making infusion into the Belarusian economy. The consequences will be very sad. The Belarusian payment system is likely to default, with a follow-up as a sharp drop in the Belarusian ruble, just like in 2011. The default will mostly hit the salaries and pensions of ordinary citizens of Belarus. And here lies the particular cynicism of the situation. After all, it’s the government that takes loans, and but it’s the people who have to face the consequences.

Invest in the future

It is better to invest in changes, Yauhen Afnahel believes:

- It is needed to invest in the future of Belarus. Lukashenka and everything that surrounds him is hopelessly out of date. Everything that these authorities have to offer we've seen in the last century. It would be much wiser to invest in those who are up to date, focused on the future and struggle for the future. Therefore, I am telling straightforwardly to foreign investors and the Belarusian businessmen: show that you have the entrepreneurial spirit. Invest the money and bet on those who aim to replace the authorities and struggle for the changes in the country. It would be a much wiser investment.

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