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Karbalevich On Lukashenka’s Speech: We Saw Disoriented, Entangled Person

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Karbalevich On Lukashenka’s Speech: We Saw Disoriented, Entangled Person
VALER KARBALEVICH

The strategy of official Minsk failed.

The most acute phase of the crisis in the Belarusian-Russian relations that happened on New Year seems to be over, gas and oil are flowing to Belarus. But such an impression is misleading, writes political analyst Valer Karbalevich for Svobodnye Novosti.

The gas issue has only been resolved for two months (January-February), and there again a painful bidding on the price will begin.

A similar situation is with oil. Although from January 4, it began to be delivered to Belarus by companies controlled by Russian oligarch Mikhail Gutseriev, it soon became clear that this was completely insufficient. The amount of the oil supplied varies, according to different sources, from 600 to 750 thousand tons. This volume provides for only half the load of the Navapolatsk and Mazyr refineries, which in 2019 consumed 1.5 million tons of the Russian oil per month. Therefore, Belarus had to suspend oil exports, and limit the export of oil products.

The issue of integration roadmaps has hung in the air.

As a response, A. Lukashenka introduced an environmental tax on oil transit for the Russian companies through Belarus.

Thus, we can state that the official Minsk’s strategy in the Russian direction has failed. The plan was to get back the Russian economic support in exchange for consent and negotiations over “deepening integration”, and signing roadmaps. But Moscow refused to play this game and remained adamant. Its position turned out to be tough: either a real union of states, or a sharp reduction, and in the future, in general, the cessation of economic preferences to an ally.

A separate question is whether A. Lukashenka had a winning strategy in the situation of a tough Russian ultimatum. But that is another topic.

In any case, this failure in the Russian direction hit A. Lukashenka's reputation greatly. He is losing the role of the only person able to negotiate with the Kremlin, and create favorable conditions for the Belarusian economy.

A. Lukashenka understands this and is struggling to put on a good face. In this sense, his speech on January 9 during the presentation of the “For Spiritual Revival” awards was very significant. The key phrase that sounded from his lips was: “I am not making excuses, and even less I am afraid of anyone”. A statement in the form of denial is A. Lukashenka's corporate identity.

The attempt to justify the political failure was not at all convincing. For a long time there was no such situation when in one speech of A. Lukashenka there were so many contradictions, mutually exclusive theses. We saw a disoriented, entangled person.

“Russia wants us to buy oil from it at prices higher than the world ones,” A. Lukashenka said. In fact, this is not so, the price of the Russian oil, according to the management of Belneftekhim, today makes 83% of the world price.

Another strange statement of A. Lukashenka: “When we agreed to sell Beltransgaz in 2011, there was a tough agreement that in five years we would reach the domestic Russian gas price. Someone forgot it, I remember.”

The obvious question immediately arises. Why then did A. Lukashenka not pin V. Putin down, and his promise was not fixed in the agreement on the sale of Beltransgaz? It's elementary, Watson. Why are the Belarusian-Russian relations not based on international agreements legally soundly executed, but on oral agreements “by the code”, which can then be easily abandoned?

Another quote from him: “You have noticed that recently in my speeches I often talk about sovereignty and independence.” It’s true, everyone has noticed this since long ago. And we even know the reason. Because independence is under threat.

And then a minute later he said: “We must stop all talks about sovereignty and independence.” Is this an order to himself?

Further on, A. Lukashenka says that he was lucky “to play a major role in the construction of this state.” And what is the result of this work-shock construction? And here's what: “I just want to warn you all: now is a very acute period in the existence of our state. We are not just walking on thin ice or on a blade. We walk and stagger left and right. God forbid, inaccurate, wrong step - and we will lose everything.”

Here are those times. Our chief foreman has been building for so long, 25 years, and in the end he managed to construct such a building that “we are staggering left and right”, we walk along thin ice or along a blade, and at any moment we can lose everything. And who is responsible for the construction drawbacks? And what is the name of that Ivan Susanin who brought us to this thin ice?

Another glaring contradiction. If the sovereignty of Belarus is in jeopardy, it is necessary to organize a system of protection in relation to the state from which the threat emanates. A. Lukashenka does not name this country. But judging by the context of the speech, we are talking about Russia. Since no one else is forcing integration.

However, A. Lukashenka immediately says: “The Russians are our people, brothers who are always ready to give us a shoulder in difficult times ... And in no case should we give sideway looks to our neighbors, especially Russians ... Today, the relations between Belarusians and Russians are an indicator of how relations should develop not only between fraternal states, not only between neighbors, but in general.”

That is, the state from which the main threat to Belarus’s independence emanates today is ready to “give us a shoulder in difficult times,” and relations with it are just exemplary (?).

In a situation of increasing external threat of Belarusian statehood, the president’s policy should be aimed at consolidating the society, mobilizing it in the face of danger. But A. Lukashenka is doing everything exactly the opposite. He attacked the opposition, which held street protests in defense of sovereignty. They are tried en masse, fined heavily, and sentenced to administrative arrests. The punishment of people for the public manifestation of patriotism, love for the motherland is a record of political absurdity. It turns out that in Belarus this is an offense. Alas, we must state the sad fact that, at a critical moment for Belarusian independence, A. Lukashenka is heading for a split in the nation, for inciting hatred towards people expressing their readiness to defend their statehood.

It is unlikely that A. Lukashenka himself can explain these obvious logical contradictions. Seeking logic in his public speeches is a hopeless affair. Political instincts are on stage here.

The fact is that Russia is threatening Belarusian statehood, and the opposition is encroaching on his power. And the latter is much more dangerous. A. Lukashenka felt that the opposition, by highlighting the idea of defending sovereignty, was seizing a possible election slogan from him, trying to occupy the niche that he monopolized. Therefore, he is trying to neutralize competitors with the usual methods.

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