Jauhen Afnahel: Severe Consequences for Lukashenka

There is a unique situation in Belarus.

According to experts, the lack of agreements with Russia on oil may halve the Belarusian authorities' revenues from oil refining soon.

"Oil and gas" war is waging against the background of the protracted crisis in the economy. It's recently become known that the leading industrial enterprises - Belshina and MAZ - fail to perform the full production cycle and have to send workers on unpaid leave.

In this situation, instead of solving vital problems, the dictator tries to distract himself and take up his favorite "toys" - ice hockey, for example.

How do Belarusians assess the situation in the country and what conclusions should Lukashenka's opponents make?

One of the opposition leaders, coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Jauhen Afnahel answers the questions of Charter97.org.

- How do you assess Lukashenka's failure at the Sochi talks on oil and gas? What consequences could it bear for his power?

- First of all, it will be financial consequences. All this time financial support, donations from Russia in the form of cheap oil, have supported the Belarusian regime. Belarus needs about 6 million tons of oil for its needs, while Lukashenka bought from 20 to 24 million. Most of this oil was processed and, in the form of petroleum products, gasoline and diesel, was sold to other countries. Lukashenka raised a lot from it. Naturally, Russia also knows about it. They just decided that it was time to stop this free ride. If Lukashenka does not agree, the consequences will be severe.

Another issue, a normal leader would have listened to the opinion of all economists, both subordinate and independent. They said that it was necessary to diversify energy supplies. This concerns both oil and gas. Then Belarus would not depend on a single source. This is normal for those who think not only about today, but also about the future, and consider alternative energy supplies.

- Lukashenka once came to power under the slogan "I'll launch plants". Today we see that the main backbone enterprises of the country are about to stay idle. How do Belarusians respond to the news? How do they assess the results of the dictator's rule?

- Mozyr and other enterprises related to oil supplies provide us with information. People are dissatisfied and understand what is the reason. Country leaders are to blame for the lack of agreements. Ordinary people, workers at enterprises suffer because of it because the whole economy of the country is based on cheap energy resources. People know this, discuss and draw conclusions. It was also reported about Belshina's shutdown. Some people tend to think it's caused by problems with Chinese suppliers. However, many think it's caused by no oil agreement with Russia.

Unlike the crises that have happened before, few people now believe that Lukashenka can negotiate with Putin. This year elections come. Lukashenka is vulnerable now. He has zero credibility in the country. There is another major factor to mention: Belarusians, especially in the east of the country, understand that Lukashenka, not Putin, is responsible for this situation. No matter how the Belarusian authorities try to represent Russia as an enemy, many Belarusians, on the contrary, believe that "Putin is good," that he "cuts Lukashenka to his size" and does not support him. It causes the growth of pro-Russian moods, which is dangerous for our country's independence.

- You often go to the regions and listen to the opinions of ordinary people. What ideas are the most resonant? What agenda should be taken to masses?

- First of all, it is a financial issue. It is the economy, declining wages, the retirement age increase and decline in pensions. For example, I read that in Estonia, which has recently gained independence like Belarus, the average old-age pension for a person with 44 years of work experience will increase to €528, while Belarusian pensioners have to live off pennies and think how to pay for utility bills and buy medicines. This is typical for all segments of the population. Everyone sees that prices are rising; the utility bills are rising, as well as fees. Meanwhile, salaries and pensions are falling.

The economy is approaching a stalemate. The main thing is the issue of people's survival. Belarusians travel abroad and compare the situation in our country with that of our neighbours, who used to live worse 30 years ago than we did. This comparison does not play in the hands of Belarus. Ordinary people want just a normal life, decent wages and essentials that are available to all our neighbours, even Ukraine.

- How would the results of the presidential elections in Belarus look like if they were fair and transparent?

- If there had been transparent and legitimate elections in Belarus, the dictator would not have been able to participate in them. At fair elections, we would argue about who could win among democratic politicians: right or left, social democrats or liberals. It happens in any European country.

And if we let him participate, then Lukashenka will lose at free elections. As many experts have already said, he has no support. It's almost impossible to meet a supporter of Lukashenka in Belarus. They probably hide and remain silent.

- What is the weakest point of Lukashenka's regime today? How can the opposition use this?

- There are many such points. The first is the economy. He fought with all the neighbours, even with his closest ally, whom he fully depends on. The second is that he has no one to rely on within the country, except for a small number of law enforcers and "family" - those who directly depend on him. Third, the majority of Belarusians, even those officials who regularly meet him, hate him. He has weak points everywhere.

- At the December protest rallies with the participation of Belarusian bloggers the question "What's next?" was raised. What would you answer, given the latest changes in Belarus?

- This is a unique situation. I have never met so many people against Lukashenka. Yes, there have been mass protests, but there have always been people who supported him for various reasons. Thanks to subsidies from Russia, he could ensure at least some level of support to people. It will not happen again. The situation will get worse rapidly.

We need to take advantage of the economic and political crisis, the country found itself in thanks to Lukashenka; we need to use all the opportunities offered by the presidential elections. We believe that there will be a strong opposition candidate at this election, who can challenge Lukashenka, defeat him, but we need to be ready to fight. We can't let Lukashenka take the seventh term. Many countries with dictators nominating for the third, fourth or fifth term, were overthrown by the people who took to the streets. We should be ready to fight against election fraud, defend our votes, take to the streets and say "no" to Lukashenka's seventh term.

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