Expert: Lukashenka's Situation Became Fragile

The ruler of Belarus with 3% rating can really lose power.

Rapid events are developing in Belarus on the eve of the presidential elections scheduled for August 9, the Ukrainian newspaper "The Country" reports.

Lukashenka's main rivals

To nominate candidates it was necessary to collect at least 100 thousand signatures of voters from May 21 to June 19.

The collection of signatures was accompanied by mass protest rallies, the so-called "slipper revolution," where dissatisfied with Lukashenka's rule compared him to a "cockroach" that should be slapped with a slipper.

Viktar Babaryka's headquarters reported on the collected 365 thousand signatures, while representatives of Valer Tsepkala's group reported on 160 thousand signatures. But the other day it became known that more than half of the signatures in support of Tsepkala had been rejected by the CEC.

Also, the initiative groups of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, wife of the arrested blogger, who continued husband's campaign, reported about collecting the necessary number of signatures (Siarhei himself was not allowed by the CEC to collect signatures for his nomination).

Unusual elections

In general, according to experts, there are alternative candidates in Belarus, who enjoy great popularity and support among the population. Also, rallies against the authorities are now large-scale - both by the number of participants and their geography (they are held not only in Minsk but in many other cities as well). Experts attribute this to several factors.

First, the fatigue of people from the long rule of Lukashenka, which imposed on the difficult socio-economic situation and negative attitude of the population to Lukashenka's refusal to introduce quarantine because of coronavirus.

And second, a part of Belarusian gastarbeiters who had previously lived and worked in the EU countries had to return because of quarantine and coronavirus. At home they have no serious earning opportunities and the local political orders seem intolerable to them. This has increased tension in society and created a rather large (Belarus-wide) stratum of protest population.

"For the first time in the history of modern Belarus, the presidential elections have become not only an arena of traditional confrontation between elites - power and opposition, but also within the system of power itself. These factors intensified the separation and split within the power team and made Lukashenka's position fragile. Not the highest ratings, presence of serious competitors create a situation when the ruler of Belarus has real risks to lose power. A straightforward "betrayal" is possible - a transition to the side of opponents of some prominent members in Lukashenka's team, current or former ones, at the level of the prime minister, KGB director, someone from the security services," - political scientist Ruslan Bortnik described the situation to "The Country".