FT: Putin Fears Shoigu’s Faction

The head of the Kremlin decided to ‘balance’ the MoD clan.

The arrest of Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov on suspicion of corruption deals a serious blow to his longtime mentor, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, at a time when much of the country's political elite expects inevitable reshuffles.

According to the Financial Times, it is expected that President Vladimir Putin, after re-election for a new term, will submit for approval a new composition of the Cabinet of Ministers, which will provoke a behind-the-scenes struggle for power.

"Against the background of this struggle, at first it seemed that Shoigu's team was on the rise, which was facilitated by Russia's recent offensives in Ukraine and the death of field commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, who was the most ardent critic and rival of Shoigu. But the arrest of Ivanov, the highest-ranking official detained since 2016, marked a shift in Shoigu's fate, especially given the very noticeable way the deputy minister was brought to court.

Putin esteems loyalty above all else, Shoigu has so far survived in his role despite setbacks in the first weeks of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as well as the fact that the three-day “special military operation” has now dragged on into its third year. The Minister of Defence also withstood fierce criticism from the head of the PMC Wagner Yevgeny Prigozhin, who last year attempted a rebellion against Shoigu and other military leaders, the newspaper notes.

“But Putin, who is known to fear that any faction in his elite will gain too much power, seems to have concluded that the Kremlin needs to find a new way to balance Shoigu's center of power and the Defence Ministry now that Prigozhin no longer plays that role,” writes the WSJ, citing one Moscow official.

Ivanov's extravagant lifestyle, clearly beyond his official capabilities, made him an easy target. Putin doesn't really care about corruption – he needs a certain amount to make it happen. But there is a limit, one of the sources noted.

“Inevitably, in a clique where power is mostly distributed through patronage, [people] are sometimes on the wrong side of someone's anger,” said General James Hockenhull, head of the British Army's Strategic Command. “As the war drags on, this cabal that seeks power and money is under increasing pressure. And sometimes someone is chosen to ‘take the blame for what is happening’.”