Coincidences Like This Do Not Happen

Lukashenka scares Russia with Venezuela and the American ambassador.

There are always two traditional events in of Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s schedule after the New Year: a meeting on party and utility issues and a corporate party. But this year, contrary to tradition, both events were devoted to relations with Russia and losses from the tax maneuver.

It seems that addressing the officials at the meeting and the athletes and artists at the reception, Aliaksandr Lukashenka did not talk to them, but continued the conversation with Vladimir Putin, which was interrupted at the end of last year.

On January 10, at a meeting with the government, Lukashenka said that, as turned out, in olden times Russia had refused to take steps towards allied integration, so it shouldn’t shift the blame and offer money in exchange for a union.

According to him, the parties should have adopted a joint Constitution, in which the single currency, the general court, and the governing bodies would be spelled out. But Russia refused: “I reminded the president of Russia about it. He said, “Yes, we did.” The question is – what are we going to do with the union treaty?

We must sit at the table and see what we can decide together in accordance with the treaty today. What we can do together without putting any pressure.” And he continued: if there is slightest pressure or unequal position of the parties, this is no longer called cooperation, but either annexation or incorporation. By the way, these two words appeared in Aliaksandr Lukashenka’s speeches only at the end of last year. Previously, the word “annexation” was not pronounced from the tribune, and in general was considered a low-level vocabulary for marginalized opposition members.

Then Lukashenka unexpectedly called the 400 million dollars of Belarus’s losses due to the Russian tax maneuver in the coming year “ridiculous amount.” At that, at the end of December, the Deputy Prime Minister of the Belarusian government, Ihar Liashenka, argued that internal reserves had already been exhausted, and all hope was only for Russian compensation.

So it is not clear, if it is funny or sad, if they are exhausted or limitless. Although, Aliaksandr Lukashenka further admitted that from 2015, when Russia had just started the tax maneuver, Belarus had already lost 3.6 billion dollars, and by 2025, when the maneuver is completed, the losses of the Belarusian economy will have amounted to 10.6 billion dollars. And this means, according to him, that Russia must compensate for these losses. But in principle, Lukashenka said, there is another option, at least this year: the government should think up where to earn this $ 400 million, if Russia wants to lose its only ally in the western direction and finally refuses to compensate for the loss.

Actually, here you can shout “bingo!”, because this is not a sign of a possible change in the party line, but an ultimatum. But the meeting did not end there either: apart from searching for 400 million, Aliaksandr Lukashenka instructed the government to find alternative sources of oil supplies.

And that has already happened before – and it worked. In 2010, when Russia introduced export duties on oil and started showing the series “The Godfather” criticizing Lukashenka on its TV channels, Minsk announced that it would buy oil in Venezuela.

Still alive, Hugo Chavez promised support to the fraternal Belarusian people, the contract for the supply of 30 million tons within three years was signed with tambourines and drums, and the Belarusian state journalists greeted the first tanker in the port of Odessa like they would greet Gagarin after the flight. At that, it was clear to everyone that transportation costs would not make Venezuelan oil cheaper than the Russian one, even given the duties. But Russia very quickly abolished the duties for Belarus, and Aliaksandr Lukashenka came off with flying colors in that oil war, and the Venezuelan project went cold in and of itself. And at the time, Chavez’s problems were completely different, becoming fatal. But the political maneuver “if you do not give oil – we’ll turn to Venezuela” worked. So, perhaps, the call to look for alternative sources of oil is a successful spell, it helped nine years ago and might work now.

On January 11, during the New Year's reception, Aliaksandr Lukashenka warned that the coming years will be difficult for the Belarusian people, because they will “have a grudge against” the country and this should become the ordeal that will show whether Belarus deserves its independence.

A day earlier, right after the meeting on party and utility issues, Foreign Minister Uladzimir Makei called Washington and announced that Belarus lifts all restrictions on the number of American diplomats working in Minsk. And these restrictions have been active for more than ten years – since 2008, when the US accused Belarus of systematic violation of human rights, and Minsk in response accused the US embassy of subversive activity and reduced the number of diplomats to five (at that time 32 American diplomats were working in Minsk). So for more than ten years, there was no American ambassador in Belarus, only a temporary attorney, and diplomatic contacts were kept to a minimum. And now Minsk is ready to accept 32, a thousand US diplomats.

Just do not say that this is a coincidence in time. Coincidences like this do not happen.

Iryna Khalip, Novaya Gazeta